Longshot Edge Morning Brief — 2026-08-14
2026-08-14 · Auto-published daily by Longshot Edge
Good morning. We ran the numbers on 14 games today (14 MLB). The cleanest spot on the board is Washington Nationals over New York Mets at 61% (+107) — a 61% lean with real separation between these two. pitching matchup: robert stock (10.13 era) vs andrew alvarez (3.76 era). Below are the leans we're most confident in, the player props worth a look, today's Smart Fun Parlay, and how our recent picks have landed.
Today's best bets
- Washington Nationals to beat New York Mets — 61% (+107, Solid lean). A 61% lean with real separation between these two. Pitching matchup: Robert Stock (10.13 ERA) vs Andrew Alvarez (3.76 ERA).
- Chicago Cubs to beat St. Louis Cardinals — 56% (-172, Lean lean). A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Clay Holmes (2.39 ERA) vs Matthew Liberatore (5.15 ERA).
- Baltimore Orioles to beat Tampa Bay Rays — 56% (+154, Lean lean). A modest 56% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg.
- Los Angeles Dodgers to beat Milwaukee Brewers — 55% (-178, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg. Pitching matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.65 ERA) vs Robert Gasser (4.57 ERA).
- Atlanta Braves to beat Arizona Diamondbacks — 55% (-186, Lean lean). A modest 55% lean — fine as a small play or a parlay leg.
Player props to watch
- Michael King (San Diego Padres) — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (proj 5.0, 3.37 ERA)
- Bo Bichette (New York Mets) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .262 AVG)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers) — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (proj 6.0, 2.65 ERA)
- Pete Alonso (Baltimore Orioles) — Over 0.5 Hits (proj 1.0, .259 AVG)
Smart Fun Parlay of the day
61% to hit. A small-stake, big-grin ticket built around today's edges:
- Washington Nationals — MLB, +107 (61%)
How we're doing
Last graded slate (2026-08-13) we went 2-0 on the board. Seattle Mariners WIN. Milwaukee Brewers WIN. Lifetime on confident (Strong + Solid) picks: 27-42 (39.1%). Every pick is on our public track record.
Analysis and entertainment only. We never take wagers. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.