Full transparency
The Track Record
We grade ourselves in public — no cherry-picking, no deleting losers. No other AI pick site does this honestly.
66
Wins
82
Losses
44.6%
Win rate
-8.3%
ROI (flat 1u)
7
Pending
Win rate by confidence
Confident picks 27-42 · 39.1%Judge us on Strong & Solid leans. Toss-ups are coin-flips we post for fun and to keep learning — tracked honestly, but they should not define the record.
Strong14-13 · 51.9%
Solid13-29 · 31.0%
Lean36-35 · 50.7%
Toss-up0-2
How the model learns
Calibration & self-tuning
Brier score 0.2785 (lower is sharper) across 148 graded picks. The model now self-corrects toward these results.
| We predicted | Picks | Actually hit |
|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 28 | 46.4% |
| 55-60% | 57 | 47.4% |
| 60-65% | 25 | 40.0% |
| 65-70% | 13 | 15.4% |
| 70-80% | 17 | 52.9% |
| 80-100% | 8 | 62.5% |
By segment: worldcup 11-12 · mlb 45-64 · wnba 10-6 · Strong 14-13 · Solid 13-29 · Lean 36-35 · Toss-up 0-2
Monthly performance
| Month | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 7-7 | 50.0% |
| 2026-07 | 20-21 | 48.8% |
| 2026-06 | 39-54 | 41.9% |
Latest results
| Date | Sport | Matchup | Pick | Model | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Washington Nationals | 61% | pending |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Texas Rangers | 54% | pending |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | San Diego Padres | 54% | pending |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 55% | pending |
| 2026-08-14 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles | 56% | pending |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Seattle Mariners | 54% | win |
| 2026-08-13 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers | 54% | win |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Texas Rangers | 60% | loss |
| 2026-08-12 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Cincinnati Reds | 58% | loss |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Texas Rangers | 60% | loss |
| 2026-08-11 | MLB | Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | 54% | loss |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 54% | win |
| 2026-08-10 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 61% | loss |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 55% | win |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Detroit Tigers | 56% | win |
| 2026-08-09 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Atlanta Braves | 54% | win |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 56% | win |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | New York Mets | 54% | loss |
| 2026-08-08 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 54% | loss |
| 2026-07-12 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Philadelphia Phillies | 57% | win |
| 2026-07-12 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 55% | loss |
| 2026-07-12 | MLB | Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 55% | win |
| 2026-07-11 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 61% | loss |
| 2026-07-11 | WORLDCUP | England @ Norway | England | 57% | win |
| 2026-07-11 | MLB | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 55% | win |
| 2026-07-11 | MLB | Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 56% | win |
| 2026-07-11 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | 57% | loss |
| 2026-07-10 | MLB | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 61% | loss |
| 2026-07-10 | MLB | Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 56% | win |
| 2026-07-09 | MLB | Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets | Kansas City Royals | 54% | loss |
| 2026-07-09 | WNBA | Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury | Indiana Fever | 58% | win |
| 2026-07-09 | MLB | Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles | Chicago Cubs | 53% | loss |
| 2026-07-08 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | Philadelphia Phillies | 57% | loss |
| 2026-07-08 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Atlanta Braves | 56% | win |
| 2026-07-07 | WORLDCUP | Colombia @ Switzerland | Colombia | 55% | loss |
| 2026-07-07 | MLB | Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Atlanta Braves | 57% | loss |
| 2026-07-07 | MLB | Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | Athletics | 57% | loss |
| 2026-07-06 | MLB | New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 58% | loss |
| 2026-07-06 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 57% | win |
| 2026-07-06 | WORLDCUP | Belgium @ United States | Belgium | 58% | win |
Showing the most recent 40 graded picks. Full history rolls up into the monthly table above.
Get the daily edge in your inbox
Every morning: the day's best bets, the smart fun parlay, and what's worth watching — free, no spam.
21+. Informational and entertainment content only.